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Sara Corbacho sarafeng622fd8 — I love it when I find a series to fall in love with as I have with P.B. Ryan's Nell Sweeney Mysteries.

Laurent Christophe laurent_christophe — A long but very stimulating read. The English is slightly archaic and the sentences long, but he's a vigorous, witty, eloquent writer. He likes to extrapolate from the case of an individual entrepreneur to the aggregate economy, which is a very different approach from other economists. As a trader himself, he's in tune with market psychology, which actually forms the basis for central tenets of his theory. Two key differences between 1929 and 2008 strike me -- first, the world was on the gold standard in 1929, second, saving rates in the US were higher and debt levels lower in 1929. This really jumps out when you read Keynes -- he's better known today for the fiscal stimulus, but actually, his General Theory, if my understanding is right (from a very quick broad glance, by no means a dedicated study), stems from the insight that the level of investment is not immediately equal to the level of savings, but rather, that savings provides a pool for potential investment -- and out of this pool, some money goes toward productive investment in business ventures, while the remainder goes into financial investment, earning the rate of interest. Thus, Keynes actually spends a LOT of time discussing monetary policy, rather than fiscal policy. The fiscal policy part is actually a consequence of two things, (i) his monetary analysis, (ii) the idea that since investment depends on perceived ROI vs interest rate, and perceived ROI depends on psychology, which is much more volatile than the interest rate can or should be, thus, investment will swing wildly with animal spirits, which is bad. Let's deal first with (i): Note that the GT was published in 1935 (!) -- a few years AFTER the onset of the Great Depression. (An observant blogger pointed out the Obama should be compared not to FDR, who took over in 1933, but to Herbert Hoover, who took the reins just as the world slipped into the GD, and held them for 2-3 years after.) At this point, policy makers had already responded by sharply increasing savings rates, and by getting central banks to hoard gold. This was based on the classical theory that savings = investment, and the more we save, the more is actually invested. Keynes recognised the flaw -- his point was that savings are POTENTIAL investment, but if not actually used, they stay in the bank and do nothing (or, by reducing velocity of money, it leads to deflation). What makes the potential investment turn to actual investment? Consumption -- which means people need to save less, not more. When people consume, it raises the ROI for entrepreneurs (by increasing their sales), and thereby leads to more investment. Further, banks shouldn't hoard gold, because this raises the interest rate, discouraging investment. Thus: "whilst aiming at a socially controlled rate of investment with a view to a progressive decline in the Marginal Eff of Capital, I should support at the same time all sorts of policies for inreasing the propensity to consume", p325. (ii) So I think Keynes would regard the interest rate as a key policy tool, and would approve boosting liquidity reducing the i/r during a depression, to incentivise investment. In fact, I think that's his first port of call. However, "the market estimation of the MEC may suffer such enormously wide fluctuations that it cannot be sufficiently offset by corresponding fluctuations in the rate of interest", p320. So there are 2 problems here -- one is that PRIVATE expectations of MEC are volatile, two is that i/r cannot be so volatile. So, the natural conclusion is to supplement private investment, with public investment. "It seems unlikely that the influence of banking policy on the i/r will be sufficient by itself to determine an optimum rate of investment. I conceive, therefore, that a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment will prove the only means of securing an approximation to full employment; though this need not exclude all manner of compromises and devces by which the public authority cooperate with private initiative." p378. If my reading is right, then to expect muscular application of a fiscal stimulus to get us out of depression is wrong. Most importantly, I think, there was leeway in the 1930s to move off the gold standard and create fiat money -- this enabled the US to inflate its way back into growth, via monetary stimulus. This is a major difference with 2008 -- we've been in a fiat money world since 1973, and by all accounts, the ratio of broad to narrow money is at a super peak (due to both regulated bank leverage and unregulated leverage through non-bank financial intermediaries). So it is unlikely the world can inflate its way out of a depression -- it's like, we're already super caffeineted, so more coffee can't help. I think this was a more significant, if implicit, part of Keynes analysis than most people recognise. The other problem is that the US is far more leveraged, and PPC (Pronpensity to Consume) certainly has to come down, rather than go up. Anyhow, fascinating last chapter on mercantilism (economic system where money supply in one country is based on gold supplies in that country) and his argument that it led European countries to impoverish their own people in order to improve their trade balance (because the only way to obtain gold is to have a trade surplus, leading to inflow of gold to your country) and also led to war (because seizing your neighbour's gold is at some point easier to selling yourself to earn it).

Maria João _aria_oao_unes — This book was amazing, I love Nicholas Sparks and this book was incredible so much romance I cried at the ending! Everyone should give this book a chance!

Never Made valak — I love Ender's Game. This is a classic sci-fi novel that explores the future of interstellar warfare from the viewpoint of a young boy named Ender, in whose hands would be placed the fate of Earth's greatest battle.