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Sugandha Sarda sugandhasarda — The Black Swan This is one of those “must read” books that many more people will claim to have read than will actually slog through. Like with Fooled by Randomness, Taleb takes many more pages than necessary to get his important points across. Those points are that we have incredibly poor skills at estimating extreme events, we regularly abuse historical statistics in ways that set us up to fail miserably, and we should have a great distrust of most planning processes. The ultimate message is positive, however, since there are general guidelines on how we can do better (set yourself up for good extreme events while protecting the downside). The style will either excite or turn off the reader. 90% of the parenthetical phrases and footnotes add little except Taleb’s (often snarky) editorials. Traders are sometimes described as people for whom the only thing worse than losing money themselves, is watching others make money. Taleb writes as if the only thing worse than him not getting adequate attention for his ideas is watching others get lauded. He clearly wants this book to be considered scholarly as he has 19 pages of notes and a 28 page bibliography designed to demonstrate the depth of his own reading. Segmenting the personal prose from its academic foundation may have the effect of improving the accessibility to the ideas within, but the reader should be cautioned. Any author who, in the acknowledgements, states “…[the book] just wrote itself,” and then thanks his editor for protecting him from “the intrusions of the standardizing editors,” has probably produced a verbose, tangent driven effort rather than the perfect prose he imagines. If the style excites you, great. If it turns you off, try to work through it. The world is full of decision makers who rely on experts, statistics and intricate models that are built on soft sand. The risks they take affect all of us, and while this behavior will probably never stop, we can take steps to minimize the impact of their folly. Anyone who has been visited by a negative Black Swan will understand this implicitly. For the rest of us, the cost of this book will be a much lower tuition than we might have to pay learning the lessons first hand.

杨 程畅 yccnaruto — I wish I could give this book 2 ratings. 5 stars for being a great book and 1 star for making me cry. I hate books that make me cry. I know, I know, but first of all, it's a love story above all else and I'm a sucker for love stories. Secondly, I've been watching helplessly as my son has been suffering through a stomach virus, so that made me more sensitive to the 'Jamie story line' and lastly, when it's a love story about not being able to be with the one you love, well, that's all I'm going to say about that. At first I couldn't figure out why the book had to be over 600 pages long, but when I was sobbing during the last 2-3 chapters, I realized it took me that long to really be drawn into the story and grow to love the characters, especially Wanderer/Wanda. Of course, there are the nit-picky things that you can argue about the contradictions in the details of the story line, but I don't have that kind of energy. I just read to escape and enjoy myself and this book let me do that - well, until I started crying. Stupid book.